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KANW is a member of the Mountain West News Bureau, a collaboration of public media stations that serves the Western states of Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming. Our mission is to tell stories about the people, places and issues across the Mountain West.From land and water management to growth in the expanding West to our unique culture and heritage, we'll explore the issues that define us and the challenges we face.

Republicans may be building a ‘seawall’ of early voters

A white sign reads "this way to vote" with an arrow pointing to the left.
Dante Filpula Ankney
/
Jackson Hole Community Radio
In 2020, more Democrats voted early, but that could be changing this year in some swing states.

Republicans in some states in our region are casting ballots in the 2024 election in higher numbers than in years past.

It appears to mark a return to historical patterns, according to Elections and Voting Information Center Director Paul Gronke, who said early voting is all about building a seawall.

“You're banking these votes prior to the election because you expect there's going to be this tidal wave of Election Day votes,” he said.

In 2020, that seawall was blue, since Republicans urged people to not vote by mail. But Gronke said the GOP has traditionally encouraged early voting — and some officials are returning to that standpoint this year.

“There's sort of a rebalancing,” Gronke said. “There's a return to normality in some respects.”

Now, the seawall in swing states such as Nevada and Arizona is trending redder than in past years. In both states, about 40% of early voters have been Republican, according to data from the University of Florida’s Election Lab. That’s a couple percentage points higher than around this time in 2020.

Mountain West State
% of early voters registered Republican (as of 10/30)
Arizona
41%
Colorado
28%
Idaho
62%
Nevada
39%
New Mexico
37%
Utah
58%
Wyoming
77%

Credit: University of Florida Election Lab

In Mountain West states where it’s an option, Republicans are still more likely to vote early in-person rather than by mail, the data shows.

Gronke said voting by mail is particularly advantageous in the West.

“We’re big, sparsely populated states in many cases, with long distances to drive,” he said. “It's quite difficult for people in many areas to get to their precinct place.”

Gronke said early voting numbers for all parties have been steadily increasing for the

last 25 years, with a big uptick during the pandemic.

In Wyoming, more than 30% of all registered voters have turned out — which is higher than the 2022 election, according to the secretary of state.

Across the region, Gronke said only time will tell what color the tidal wave is come Election Day.

Mountain West State
% of all registered voters that have cast ballots (as of 10/30)
Arizona
37%
Colorado
35%
Idaho
23%
Nevada
33%
New Mexico
36%
Utah
29%
Wyoming
30%

Credit: University of Florida Election Lab, secretary of state websites

This story was produced by the Mountain West News Bureau, a collaboration between Wyoming Public Media, Nevada Public Radio, Boise State Public Radio in Idaho, KUNR in Nevada, KUNC in Colorado and KANW in New Mexico, with support from affiliate stations across the region. Funding for the Mountain West News Bureau is provided in part by the Corporation for Public Broadcasting.

Hanna is the Mountain West News Bureau reporter based in Teton County.